一篇迟到了很久的笔记.
这本是 Morgan Housel的新书, 2020年出炉, 有幸在Twitter上刷到, 就下载了本, 扔进了书单.
刷完后, 打着”Some lessons have to be experienced before they can be understood”做幌子, 安慰自己, 等在实战中伤痕累累了, 再来写读后感, 才比较有共鸣嘛………..
自然这是为偷懒找的借口.
不过没有实战也可以先来缕缕, 加深印象, 说不定以后会少踩点坑.[虽然心里明白并不会……]
说正题.
整本书共20章, 主要讲述在人们处理金钱时, 影响他们作出决策的一些偏见和原因.诚如作者本人所言, 每章都可以单独成文, 并没有太多的关联, 可以随意选择你感兴趣的章节阅读.
两点建议
大部分人刷的时候, 可能会直接奔着答案去, 作者也确实在书中的最后一个章节里, 提到了他个人的一些理财原则, 也可看作是投资建议, 主要是两点:
保持高储蓄率
不过度消费, 选择持有足够的现金, 以应对生活中难免会出现的意外,而不必在面临重大开销时, 被迫去抛售持有的股票.
Independence, at any income level, is driven by your savings rate.
Cash is the oxygen of independence.
这里作者也提到了他没有按揭买房, 而是全款买房, 并认为这是他做的最好的决定.[无债一身轻, 夜夜安眠.]
We own our house without a mortgage, which is the worst financial decision we’ve ever made but the best money decision we’ve ever made.
[个人觉得, 作者如此反复强调高储蓄率, 应当是基于他对安全边际(又名 Room For Error)的深刻理解. ]
持有低成本的指数基金
基于这个决定的底层逻辑, 是作者相信全球经济在接下来的数十年内会蓬勃发展.
保持耐心和乐观, 坚持持有就好. [让人想起芒格那句: 慢一点, 我们不在乎]
当然, 作者也提到了, 他可能会在未来改变这个投资决定.
两条看似简单的建议, 其实坚持做下去真得不易.
不过有挑战的事情, 才更值得去做, 不是吗?
好了, 如果你需要的是答案, 下面的内容可以直接跳过了.
章节摘选
以下内容主要摘选了各章节中, 个人很喜欢的一些观点.
Your personal experiences with money make up maybe 0.00000001% of what’s happened in the world, but maybe 80% of how you think the world works.
Every decision people make with money is justified by taking the information they have at the moment and plugging it into their unique mental model of how the world works. [其实做任何决定的时候, 都会遵循这样的模式吧, 并不仅仅是有关金钱方面, 所以, 掌握的信息是否足够, 是否正确以及你对于世界运行的认知是否合理, 决定了所作出的决定的质量]
I want you to be successful, and I want you to earn it. But realize that not all success is due to hard work, and not all poverty is due to laziness. Keep this in mind when judging people, including yourself. [No judgement]
The trick when dealing with failure is arranging your financial life in a way that a bad investment here and a missed financial goal there won’t wipe you out so you can keep playing until the odds fall in your favor.[不要离场]
There is no reason to risk what you have and need for what you don’t have and don’t need.[不要为了不值得的东西去冒险]
there’s only one way to stay wealthy: some combination of frugality and paranoia.[生活简朴, 决策慎重]
Remember, tails drive everything.[长尾理论]
The ability to do what you want, when you want, with who you want, for as long as you want, is priceless. It is the highest dividend money pays. [自由意味着自己对个人时间的掌控, You are in control, 这章提到了Derek Sivers年轻时候的一个故事, 特别喜欢, 哎, 我咋就没有那样的觉悟?]
The world is filled with people who look modest but are actually wealthy and people who look rich who live at the razor’s edge of insolvency. Keep this in mind when quickly judging others’ success and setting your own goals.[Wealthy is what you don’t see.]
Every bit of savings is like taking a point in the future that would have been owned by someone else and giving it back to yourself.
Do not aim to be coldly rational when making financial decisions. Aim to just be pretty reasonable. Reasonable is more realistic and you have a better chance of sticking with it for the long run, which is what matters most when managing money.
Things that have never happened before happen all the time.[对应前面提到的, 历史从不重复, 重复的是人, history never repeats itself, man always does]
History can be a misleading guide to the future of the economy and stock market because it doesn’t account for structural changes that are relevant to today’s world.
In fact, the most important part of every plan is planning on your plan not going according to plan. [保持灵活, You have no sunk costs.]
The wisdom in having room for error is acknowledging that uncertainty, randomness, and chance—“unknowns”—are an ever-present part of life.
At every stage of our lives we make decisions that will profoundly influence the lives of the people we’re going to become, and then when we become those people, we’re not always thrilled with the decisions we made.[挺扎心的…..]
Like everything else worthwhile, successful investing demands a price. But its currency is not dollars and cents. It’s volatility, fear, doubt, uncertainty, and regret—all of which are easy to overlook until you’re dealing with them in real time. [it’s an admission fee worth paying]
We’re just playing a different game. [实在太喜欢这隐喻]
The simple idea that most people wake up in the morning trying to make things a little better and more productive than wake up looking to cause trouble is the foundation of optimism. [保持乐观, 知道波折难免, 但总体趋势是向上的]
Hindsight, the ability to explain the past, gives us the illusion that the world is understandable. It gives us the illusion that the world makes sense, even when it doesn’t make sense. That’s a big deal in producing mistakes in many fields.[无数次掉进这个认知的坑….]
最后, 贴句Charlie Munger的话做结尾吧:
The best way to achieve felicity is to aim low.